Thursday, November 6, 2008

Oil Prices Caused the Current Recession?

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4727#more


"Oil shocks create global recessions by transferring billions of dollars of
income from economies where consumers spend every cent they have, and then some,
to economies that sport the highest savings rates in the world.
While those
petro-dollars may get recycled back to Wall Street by sovereign wealth fund
investments, they don’t all get recycled back into world demand. The leakage, as
income is transferred to countries with savings rates as high as 50%, is what
makes this income transfer far from demand neutral."

"Given that oil prices really took off in the third quarter of last year, after
several years of more gradual increases, we should expect to see its maximum hit
on the economy right about now. By the same token, however, the impact from the
even larger decline in oil prices over the last two quarters should give its
maximum boost to the economy moving into 2009
."

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